Tech Predictions for 2011

Well, a new year is here and I figured it would be fun to write down what I think is going to happen over the course of the next year in the tech industry. At the end of the year we will all be able to see exactly how wrong or right I was.

Microsoft:

  • The kinect is here and is quite a success already. We will see Kinect put xboxes into more people’s homes especially among casual games.
  • xbox will be Microsoft’s big story of the year, not the PC or Office. I expect we will see Microsoft starting to use their living room box to keep Google TV, Apple TV, Roku, and Boxee out of the living room.  Expect better podcast support and possibly an improved app centric dashboard (though I think the app centric dash is unlikely).
  • Window phone 7 will get a 3%-5% market share (among new smart phones) nothing spectacular but not an all out failure.
  • Silverlight will be coming to the xbox and will be the primary environment for the xbox app store.
  • Bing gains a little bit more market share
  • IE continues to die off as it is replaced by Chrome
  • xbox games focus more on digital distribution instead of discs
Apple:
  • New iPad (duh)
    • Front facing camera
    • Not a retina display but higher res than current model
    • Rear facing camera
    • Verizon and AT&T model
    • Induction charging (I don’t think this will be a reality but wish it would)
    • Thinner
    • 512MB of Ram
    • No USB port (YAY!)
  • iOS 5.0
    • AirSync, will no longer have to plug iOS devices into computers to get updates
    • Fixed Calendar and Contact apps to be more intuitive (page turns instead of scroll bars)
    • Turn by turn directions (Voice)
    • Improved keynote app for ipad (device screen enters a presenter mode when vga adapter is plugged in)
    • Improved UI for handling notifications, less invasive than current popup system
  • iPhone 5
    • 4G via LTE on Verizon and AT&T
    • Single hardware phone (CDMA and GSM in same device)
    • New antenna
  • New MacBook pros
    • No cd drive
    • Solid state hard drives are default
  • The Apple TV will get an app store
  • App store is a success
Google:
  • Chrome browser continues to grow at the expense of Firefox and IE
  • Android thrives on networks without iPhone eating away at what is left of RIM’s nonenterprise marketshare
  • Android sees growth significantly slow on Verizon
  • Tablets, Tablets, Tablets, we will see a bunch of junky tablets with android but in Q3 and Q4 we will start to see some really great Android tablets
Amazon:
  • Kindle will continue to hold the ebook market
  • $99 Kindle
  • Between Q4 and Q1 of next year we will see a color eInk Kindle
  • Movie rental app will come to the iPhone
Misc:
  • On Live will gain adoption amongst traditional console gamers
  • Bluray and DVD sales decline even more as Netflix style distribution grows
  • Paul Allen loses his suit against the internet
  • SSDs become the an option in consumer pcs (sub $700 machines)
  • 3D Football (American Football)
  • Wikileaks keeps spotlight
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